Natural Gas
One focus of Dynamic Forecasting has been the dynamic analysis of the US natural gas market. Over the years, we have developed several dynamic models to analyze near term prices at Henry Hub. The objective of this work has been to explore how prices may evolve in the context of the investment cycle; what many refer to as the "commodity cycle". By subjecting specific model inputs to random variation, a monte carlo type spectrum of possible behaviors can be developed. The graphic below displays a few simulation trajectories from a mid 2009 analysis.
What path will future prices take?
A System Dynamics view:
Treats the natural gas market as a feedback system. Price drives both supply
and demand which feedback to drive future prices. Simulating such feedback
structures allows one to explore future market paths.
Contact:
For inquires about system dynamics based analysis of natural gas markets, production, field management or or other industry behaviors, please contact: