Products and Services
Consulting Services
Dynamic Forecasting specializes in dynamic analysis of business systems. We view markets, and the businesses within them, as feedback systems that bring products and services to consumers. By studying, modeling and simulating the underlying feedback structures that drive business and market performance, we can provide significant insight into the consequences of pursued or proposed policies, not in a static world but in a dynamic world. Too often corporate policies fail because they ignore the basic mechanisms -- feedbacks -- that drive the market's responses to their actions.
A consulting engagement with Dynamic Forecasting is an interactive process. We bring experience and expertise in simulating business systems. The client brings expertise of their particular business and market. The two must be combined for a successful engagement. Why? Consulting engagements are undertaken to improve performance. Models and simulations do not make decisions. Managers do. For a manager to apply the insights gained from a simulation exercise, they must understand the logic behind the insight. The value of modeling is that our mental models are made explicit and their logical consequences are tested. The process of developing a dynamic analysis enables a manager to strengthen their mental models upon which business decisions are based. The objective of a Dynamic Forecasting engagement is not to create a black box, but rather to open a window into our client's mental models and subject these mental models to the explicit logic of simulation. We believe that this type of rigorous analysis can promote a better understanding of business systems and lead to better decision making.Market Insights: United States Natural Gas
One area of focus at Dynamic Forecasting is modeling and simulating boom bust cycles, particularly in commodity markets. Along this lines, Dynamic Forecasting created and maintains a system dynamics model of the US Natural Gas Market. The particular focus of this effort is to forecast natural gas prices in context of investment driven oscillations: i.e. the commodity cycle.
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